INFLUENCE OF SOLAR POWER FARM EXPANSION ON LAND USE TRANSITION TRAJECTORIES AND CARBON SINK RESILIENCE

Abstract

The European Union has set ambitious goals for renewable energy, leading to a significant expansion of solar power farms across member states. This growth, however, has introduced notable challenges, particularly regarding land use changes and the preservation of carbon sinks. In 2009, the National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) mandated that each EU member state develop specific incentives to encourage the growth of solar power farms. These measures aimed to increase the share of solar energy in the overall energy mix and to reduce environmental pollution. A thorough evaluation of the NREAP’s implementation is essential to understand its effects on solar expansion, land competition, and land use changes, especially those that support carbon sink preservation. This study analyzes panel data from all 27 EU member states, covering the period from 1990 to 2023. The research employs a heterogeneous timing difference-in-difference model to assess how transformation policies have influenced the expansion of solar power farms, with particular attention to environmental pollution reduction and biodiversity conservation within the EU27. The analysis indicates that, compared to Central and Eastern EU member states, Western EU countries have implemented NREAP policies that significantly affect land use change and carbon sink capacity. These policy-driven changes are associated with higher population densities in Western EU member states. The effectiveness of these policies was confirmed through a placebo test, supporting the validity of the findings. Based on the results, the study offers recommendations to further enhance the competitiveness of offshore solar power projects. These suggestions aim to support sustainable energy development while maintaining environmental and biodiversity objectives.